On Saturday, November 22, 2025, Manchester City travels to St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne for a high-stakes Premier League showdown against Newcastle United. Kickoff is set for 17:30 UTC — a 12:30 p.m. ET start — with fans expecting fireworks. Manchester City, sitting second in the table, enters as -102 favorites, while Newcastle United, languishing in 14th, are +260 underdogs. But this isn’t just another match. It’s a potential milestone night for Erling Haaland, who needs just one more goal to reach his 100th in the Premier League. And if history holds, he’ll get it here.
Form, Stats, and the Numbers That Tell the Story
Manchester City haven’t just been good this season — they’ve been brutal. In their last five matches, they’ve scored 17 goals and conceded just two. Their 3-0 demolition of Liverpool last weekend wasn’t a fluke; it was a statement. Their average of 4.00 goals per game is the highest in the league. Away from home, they’ve netted 1.50 goals per match — low for them, but still enough to win most games. What’s more alarming? They haven’t failed to score in a single Premier League match this season.
Meanwhile, Newcastle United have been a puzzle. At home, they’re dangerous — scoring 3.33 goals per game and winning 10 of their last 13 league matches at St. James’ Park. But their defense? Fractured. They’ve kept zero clean sheets at home all season. And in their last outing, they collapsed 3-1 against Brentford, revealing cracks that City will exploit. Their expected goals (xG) of 2.28 per game suggest they create chances, but finishing them? That’s the issue. They’ve failed to score in half of their away games.
The Haaland Factor — And the Milestone Looming
Erling Haaland isn’t just a striker. He’s a phenomenon. With 99 Premier League goals to his name, this match against Newcastle United could be the night he joins an elite club. Only three players in history have hit 100 Premier League goals before turning 25. Haaland is on track to be the fourth. Bookmakers like BetMGM Sportsbook list him at -120 to score anytime — a sign of near-certainty. Analysts at CBS Sports and footballpredictions.com both point to him as the most likely match-winner. And here’s the twist: Newcastle have never kept a clean sheet against City in their last 11 meetings. Haaland has scored in six of those.
Even with Mateo Kovacic still recovering and Rodri doubtful, City’s depth is staggering. Oscar Bobb has returned from injury and adds pace down the left — a nightmare for Newcastle’s aging fullback, Matt Targett. The midfield trio of Phil Foden, Kevin De Bruyne, and Bernardo Silva will control tempo, while Haaland waits like a predator.
Why This Match Matters Beyond the Table
Manchester City are four points behind Arsenal — but they’ve played one more game. A win here doesn’t just close the gap; it puts psychological pressure on the leaders. For Pep Guardiola, this is about momentum. He’s never won at St. James’ Park against Eddie Howe — until last season, when City edged out a 2-1 victory. That was Howe’s first-ever Premier League win over Guardiola, in his 17th attempt. Now, the tables have turned. Guardiola has the upper hand in form, squad quality, and belief.
For Newcastle, it’s about pride. They’re not fighting for Europe anymore, but they’re still capable of big nights. Their home crowd is among the loudest in England. If they can score first — and they’ve done it in 8 of their last 13 home wins — they might just force City into a rare error. But history says otherwise. In simulations by CBS Sports’ Jon Eimer, City win 46% of the time — more than any other outcome.
What the Experts Are Saying
The consensus? Over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score. Manchester City to win. Footballpredictions.com forecasts a 1-2 result. SportsLine Projection Model backs it. Even the odds on total corners (9-11) and shots on target (Away Over 4.5) suggest City will dominate possession and create volume. Bruno Guimarães is a likely booking target — he’s been aggressive in recent matches, and City’s quick transitions will test his discipline.
What’s surprising? Newcastle’s home xG (1.97) is higher than City’s away xGA (0.71). That means, statistically, they should be scoring more. But finishing? That’s the gap. City’s defense, meanwhile, is clinical. They’ve kept just one clean sheet away from home all season — but they don’t need to. They just need to score twice.
What’s Next?
If City win, they’ll be just one point behind Arsenal with a game in hand. A draw? That’s a missed opportunity. A loss? It would be their first league defeat in over two months — and a major blow to their title hopes. For Newcastle, a win would spark belief they can still challenge for a top-half finish. But given their away form and defensive fragility, it’s a long shot.
One thing’s certain: Saturday night at St. James’ Park won’t be dull. The atmosphere will be electric. The stakes are high. And Haaland? He’s not just playing for three points. He’s playing for history.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Erling Haaland really close to his 100th Premier League goal?
Yes. As of November 2025, Haaland has scored exactly 99 Premier League goals in just 84 appearances — the fastest anyone has reached that mark. A goal against Newcastle United would make him the fourth player in history to hit 100 before age 25, joining Alan Shearer, Wayne Rooney, and Harry Kane. His goal rate of 1.18 per game is unmatched in the modern era.
Why are Manchester City favorites despite playing away?
Despite being on the road, City’s away form is elite: they’ve won 7 of their last 9 away matches, scoring 2.5 goals per game. Newcastle’s home defense has conceded 1.8 goals per match this season — the worst in the top half. City’s midfield control and Haaland’s clinical finishing make them a different class, even on the road.
Can Newcastle United pull off an upset?
It’s possible, but unlikely. Newcastle have won 10 of their last 13 home games, but only one of those victories came against a top-four side. Their last win over City was in 2024 — and even then, they needed a late goal and a City error. Without a fully fit midfield and a clean sheet, they’ll struggle to contain City’s attacking trio of Haaland, Foden, and De Bruyne.
What’s the significance of the 2.5 goal over/under line?
The over/under is set at 2.5 because both teams average over 2.5 combined goals per game in their head-to-heads. City’s away games average 3.2 goals, while Newcastle’s home games average 3.8. With City scoring in 100% of matches and Newcastle scoring in 50%, the over is the safer bet. Only two of their last 10 meetings ended with 2 or fewer goals.
How has Eddie Howe performed against Pep Guardiola?
Before last season, Howe had lost 14 and drawn 2 of his first 16 meetings with Guardiola — never winning. His first victory came in a 2-1 home win in April 2024, when Newcastle’s midfield press disrupted City’s rhythm. But since then, Guardiola has won the last two meetings, including a 4-1 away win. The psychological edge has clearly shifted.
Who’s the key player to watch besides Haaland?
Phil Foden. With Rodri doubtful and Kovacic out, Foden will play a deeper role, linking midfield and attack. He’s scored in 7 of his last 10 away games and has 4 assists in his last 5 against Newcastle. His movement between the lines will tear apart Newcastle’s high defensive line — and he’s the most likely to set up Haaland’s 100th goal.